Month: December 2003

Via Paul Riddell I found two fascinating articles. First is this cautionary piece about how our faltering level of scientific literacy is sure to have disastrous results sometime, probably sooner rather than later. Part of the problem, I think, lies in the scientific community itself, which tends to view efforts at popularization with suspicion and chafes at teaching science to laypeople. But a lot of it also lies in the general “Why the hell do I need to know this?” attitude Americans seem to have toward, well, anything not immediately connected to their own chosen career.

Riddell also points out this article by noted skeptic Michael Shermer, in which I learn that the magic-marker thing that stores use to test large bills for counterfeits doesn’t work on counterfeits that are made with any kind of sophistication at all. Interesting. I’m also glad to know that my general view of those little plastic balls you’re supposed to throw into your washer to get cleaner clothes (“How the hell can that possibly work?”) is the right one.

However, I do think that I could have lived a long and happy life without ever learning of this treatment for “internal cleansing”. (Note how these people say they don’t include pictures on the site for their product, because they think they’d be targeted by pranksters and whatnot. Gee, I can’t imagine why.)

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The Buffalo Bills have informed head coach Gregg Williams that he will not be receiving a new contract offer for 2004. No need to rehash it all, but I do wish Williams success elsewhere, when he goes back to coordinating defenses somewhere.

The biggest names being mentioned as a replacement are Jim Fassel (now former head coach of the New York Giants), Jim Haslett (current head coach of the New Orleans Saints), and Tom Coughlin (former head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars). Personally, I’d like to see Ted Cottrell, the current defensive coordinator of the New York Jets, get serious consideration. Other than that, I have no opinion, so long as the next guy dumps Kevin Gilbride as one of his first official acts.

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OK, all you people on the lookout for suspicious activity, here’s a new one: Watch out for people toting almanacs, because they can be used for terrorism.

Have we yet reached the point when it might be easier to just put out a list of activities that cannot be viewed suspiciously at all?

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Oh, wow! I had no idea that Alton Brown, who was one of my favorite personalities on The Food Network back when we bothered getting cable, had a blog. And he’s promising to update more, which is a bonus for me, since I didn’t even know he had anything to update. Coolness galore!

(via the Dead Parrot Society)

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PZ Myers doesn’t think that Jack Chick knows what he’s talking about.

I wonder if God ever gets annoyed at the caliber of spokespeople he has these days. I mean, when you’ve had Moses doing yeoman duty for you, it’s got to be annoying to have Jack Chick around.

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Darth Swank points out this article about the Tarot, which is a pretty interesting read, and not just in itself, but because in a strange bit of cenvergence — insert the X-Files theme here — I just finished a noir novel that is arranged around the Tarot and fortune-telling, called Nightmare Alley by William Lindsay Gresham. (My copy is part of am outstanding Library of America collection, Crime Novels: American Noir, 1930s and 40s, which also contains such books as The Postman Always Rings Twice and They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?) Each chapter of Nightmare Alley is titled, and themed, after one of the cards of the Tarot.

The novel, which was originally published in 1946, apparently arose from conversations Gresham had with a former carnival worker with whom he served in the Spanish Civil War. The story is that of one Stan Carlisle, who at the beginning of the book is a minor assistant with one of those traveling carnivals that features “mindreaders” and strongmen and other such acts. Stan gradually discovers that he has an uncommon gift for doing what is called “cold reading”, which is basically using an ability to think fast and pick up on visual cues in order to simulate psychic ability. Stan, though, is so good at it that he leaves the carny and strikes out on his own, developing an act which he first calls “mentalism” and then changes to “spiritualism”, even going so far as to become an ersatz clergyman so as to more effectively bilk his “flock”. However, Stan’s ability to manipulate other people’s psychological baggage (and some of his manipulations are truly diabolical) does not quiet his own demons, and in the end, his hubris leads him into tragedy.

This book’s subject matter reminded me of a couple of X-Files episodes that dealt with traveling carnivals and charlatan magicians and such, although it’s perfectly clear that there never is anything supernatural going on here — just the perversions of a man using his gifts to deceive and swindle others. Gresham writes in that wonderful noir style in which he doesn’t always tell us exactly what’s going on because it’s more effective to get us to see it on our own. I love writing like this passage when Stan is shown to his hotel room by the bellhop:

Stan nodded, throwing his hat on the bed and getting out of his overcoat. “Bring some club sode. And plenty of ice.”

The boy took a five and winked. “Like some company? We got swell gals in town — new since you was here last. I know a little blonde that’s got everything. And I mean everything.”

Stan lay down on the other bed and lit a cigarette, folding his hands behind his bed. “Brunette.”

“You’re the boss.”

I loved this book’s darkness; it’s a virtual study in mood and emotion. The book was made into a film starring Tyrone Power and, more recently, a graphic novel adapted by Spain Rodriguez (reviewed here).

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Morat returns from a mini-blogging holiday with a very sad post and a somewhat troubling one.

First, the sad one: the impending death of a newly-acquired dog. As a longtime cat person, I know well how sad it is to lose a loved pet, but it’s truly gut-wrenching when it comes so soon into the relationship. I truly hope that Morat’s father-in-law somehow gets another dog someday, once the pain from this one has lessened somewhat.

Now, the troubling post: Apparently Howard Dean is warning that his well-spring of supporters might well sit out the 2004 elections, turning their backs on the Democratic nominee, if Dean fails to win the nomination. This possibility is what scares the hell out of me about 2004, that the Howard Dean phenomenon is more of a “cult of personality” than a real energizing of youthful liberalism. No matter what happens in 2004, the Democrats have a lot of work to do; the party is in dire need of new blood and new ideas. What I’m hoping is that 2004 will be a year in which liberals start the long job of repairing the party infrastructure, even in the face of possible defeat, as Republicans began doing after Barry Goldwater lost in 1964.

Whether Dean gets the nomination and wins, or gets the nomination and loses, or doesn’t even get on the ticket, what would be truly disastrous is any scenario in which all these fired-up Deaniacs basically wipe their hands after the election and say, “Wake me up in 2008.” What happens in 2004 is vitally important, but in my mind, what Democrats do in 2005 is even moreso. I’m uncomfortable with a Democratic party whose dominant approaches right now are “We love Howard Dean!” and “We gotta replace Bush just to stop the bleeding”.

American liberalism is in need of serious rebuilding, and things like this article suggest to me that rebuilding is not what the Deaniacs are really interested in. This kind of thing makes me think of all the Ross Perot supporters who basically vanished from the scene when Perot himself disappeared.

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Warren Ellis has been posting a series of thoughts or expectations or predictions or hopes from the coming year, from a lot of people in his circle of highly interesting friends and colleagues. Check them out.

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The playoff picture in the NFL is set, and now I can look at how my predictions matched up to reality. Sadly, not as well as last year, when I picked six of eight divisions correctly. But it’s not all bad for me! First, a few random thoughts:

:: Yes, the Patriots had a hell of a year. But I’m still not ready to punch Bill Belichick’s ticket to Canton. As far as I can see, he’s had one admittedly superb season (this year), one amazingly lucky season (2001), and the rest of his head coaching career has been merely fair. The Patriots are also the most inexplicable 14-2 team I’ve ever seen; they simply don’t dominate in any particular category, which leads a lot of people to wax poetic about “intangibles” and how they “just win” and all that. The problem with relying on mystique is that it can dissipate really quickly.

:: Wow, what a way for a season to end for the Vikings. I didn’t get to see it, because the Packers game was televised in Buffalo, which was surreal enough. They showed the Packers basically congratulating each other and taking solace in fighting the good fight during their fourth quarter, while the Vikings were ahead. But then word started to percolate about Lambeau Field that the Vikes might be in trouble, and the fans started turning toward the people in the luxury boxes to tell them what was happening in Arizona. The last two minutes of Green Bay’s game became louder and louder as they realized that they might go to the playoffs, and then that they actually would be going.

:: Remember how on Saturday Night Live, Kevin Nealon used to parody Brent Musberger in “NFL Live” sketches by appending every sentence with “on CBS”? Well, Phil Simms must have been on some similar plan, because he never referred to “the Super Bowl”, but “the Super Bowl on CBS”. I really don’t think you guys need to worry, CBS. If I don’t know what network is carrying the game, I promise to flip channels until I find it. Should be pretty easy to find the only football game on TV that day.

OK, time to look at my predictions versus reality. Here’s a table, with each division’s winner and my picks.

Division	Winner	Prediction
AFC East	New England	Buffalo
AFC North	Baltimore	Pittsburgh
AFC South	Indianapolis	Tennessee
AFC West	Kansas City	Kansas City
AFC Wildcards	Tennessee, Denver	New England, Denver
NFC East	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
NFC North	Green Bay	Green Bay
NFC South	Carolina	Tampa Bay
NFC West	St. Louis	San Francisco
NFC Wildcards	Seattle, Dallas	St. Louis, NY Giants

So I only picked three of eight divisions correctly – just under fifty percent. But, seven of the teams I picked to make the playoffs did make it, just above fifty percent. I also noted back then that Minnesota, Seattle and Cleveland could well end up making noise in the playoff hunt, and two of three of those teams did: Seattle did make it, Minnesota came heartbreakingly close to making it, and Cleveland wasn’t very good, but then, they played in a crappy division and on the last day kept the Bengals out. We all know that the Bills’ work on the field did not match what just about anybody thought they’d do before the season, and the Giants were also underachievers in a big way.

Other than the Bills, my biggest bout of confusion lies with the Buccaneers; they fielded basically the same team that went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl a year ago, and they were inconsistent and lousy. In retrospect, I’m not sure what I saw in the 49ers or the Steelers before the season started; these were “reputation” picks, really. I’m a bit surprised that the Steelers stumbled so badly, but that has historically been a very tight division. I also didn’t think Bill Parcells would get Dallas into playoff shape that quickly (although I thought for sure that he would get them there eventually), and I pride myself that I never once got on the Miami Dolphins bandwagon. And if they bring Wannstedt back, pencil them in for another late-season swoon next year too as their vaunted defense gets even older.

Obvously, my Super Bowl prediction (Buccaneers over Titans) can’t happen. I think that if they’re healthy, the Titans are probably the best team in the AFC on paper, but they are in the unlucky position of being a wildcard team, and with the current playoff format, no wildcard team ever gets to play a home game, unless by some crazy miracle both wildcards in a conference advance to the title game. The chances of that happening are pretty low.

So, who can beat the Patriots? In the AFC, I think that the Colts could do it, and so could the Titans, although their road is a lot harder. The Chiefs can’t do it. If the Patriots get to the Super Bowl, I think the Eagles, Rams and Packers could all beat them, with the Eagles having the best chance to do so. I don’t know if my stomach could handle another Rams-Pats Super Bowl, though, because I know Mike Martz would decide to get cute again, just like he did two years ago when he giftwrapped the championship for Belichick and company.

One thing is for certain: this year’s playoffs should see some nifty, nifty football.

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At the risk of sounding like David Letterman when he used to maintain his tally of Consecutive Days In Which He Did Not Receive An Invitation To Appear On Oprah’s Show, I now note that Atrios links Adam Yoshida for the third time in three weeks.

I’m still waiting for my first Atriolanche.

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