Ixnay on the Ad-picks-bay!

The other day, the Buffalo Bills held a hastily-called news conference to announce the hiring of their new General Manager: a guy named Buddy Nix, who was promoted from national scout to GM for the team. After everyone in Buffalo — and I mean everyone — agreed that what the team needs first and foremost is a good football person to take over the reins of the never-ending rebuilding project, the selection of Nix was billed as just that. But the reaction in Bills-land has been a pretty resounding “Meh”. Jerry Sullivan’s column from the other day is pretty representative of the negative reaction, while positive reaction has generally been of the “Well, they could have done worse” variety. I haven’t heard anyone who is really excited by Nix’s hiring.

To me, the least interesting of the objections to Nix are the ones related to his age (he’s 70) and his experience until now. I tend to think that if we can generally think of men in their 70s as being qualified to be President of the United States, Supreme Court Justices, or United States Senators, then surely a man in his 70s can run an NFL team. (So can women in their 70s, for that matter.) Not interested in the age argument. Nor am I much convinced by its parallel argument, that hey, since he’s 70, shouldn’t he have become a GM way before this? If Nix had been toiling as a scout for three or four decades and was only now getting his shot at being GM, that would be one thing, but he’s only been in the NFL scouting scene since 1993, when he left a long college coaching career for an NFL scouting career. Seventeen years of scouting in the NFL, rising up the ranks of two organizations in the process, doesn’t strike me as an unreasonable amount of experience for a first-time General Manager. Just looking at one other notable example, Scott Pioli is finishing his first season as an NFL GM in Kansas City; his prior scouting and front-office career with several organizations (most notably the Patriots) started in 1992. So I’m fine with Nix’s level of experience.

I’m also fine with Nix’s resume. He worked in Buffalo through the mid and late 1990s, when the team was still good and was still drafting good players. Then he went to San Diego at the beginning of this decade, as the Chargers began to build into one of the NFL’s better teams. (I have a feeling the Chargers will end up as this era’s best team to not make the Super Bowl.) Now he’s back in Buffalo — actually, he was back last year as a National Scout. The first draft since his return, the 2009 draft, was actually not a bad draft at all and may turn out pretty good in the end, especially if Aaron Maybin develops over the offseason into a good player. Nix has the pedigree you want in a GM: he’s been with two organizations for a long time each, during their good years.

The more compelling argument against Nix is the nature of the apparent search the Bills made for their GM. They didn’t wait to interview candidates from other organizations (which you’re only allowed to do when the season is over); from all appearances, they interviewed exactly two people: Nix and current Bills Director of Pro Personnel John Guy, who “happens to be black”, thus satisfying the NFL’s requirement that all teams interview minority candidates when hiring. The argument is that the Bills didn’t cast a wide net at all; instead they went with someone in house, someone safe and comfortable. Maybe. We’ll see.

I do think that Nix represents an upgrade over the previous football regime here. Obviously the results will tell the tale and the results won’t be in for a few years, but as long as Nix isn’t the type of guy to keep John McCargo around (or trade back up into the first round to pick him), maybe the team will be on the rise soon. Let’s see what happens when he hires a coach.

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Losing! Whiskey! Sexy!

The Buffalo Bills have, a short while ago, lost 17-10 to the New England Patriots. That’s their second loss to the Patriots this year and something like their 18th since 2000. Wow. Although they did break their usual pattern of playing the Pats tough the first time and then get blown out the second; they played tough in both games. Same result, though. Whee!!!

The loss today is notable in that it’s also the ninth of the season, which means that the Bills are officially playing a losing season. That will be their fifth consecutive losing season. It’s also the seventh losing season since their last playoff year (1999). It’s also the ninth non-winning season in the same period (since they have two 8-8 finishes, and .500 ball is neither winning nor losing).

Bad franchise, bad team, just plain bad.

(Also, I read yesterday that the way George Bush structured his big “tax cuts for rich people” bill back in 2001, there will be no estate tax in 2010. So if Ralph Wilson dies next year, does that mean he can leave the team to his kids and they would not have to sell the team in order to pay the inheritance tax? Hmmmm….)

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The Ball of the Foot

Some random babblings ’bout football:

:: Wow, the Steelers really have this suck-good-suck thing going on, don’t they? They’re awesome and win the Super Bowl, then they suck, then they get better, then they win the Super Bowl again, and now they suck. Weird.

:: I admit that I thought for sure that Brett Favre would start to stink up the joint at some point, and aside from that one game against the Cardinals, he hasn’t. But then, the Vikings’ schedule has really helped him out, hasn’t it? First, they play in a bad division (even though the Packers seem to be catching on finally); second, they’re in a dome; third, with just two or three exceptions (which are almost all behind them anyway), it seems as though each time they face a good teams, they’re at home, and their road games have been mostly against bad teams. I don’t know, but I don’t see them beating New Orleans on the road. But then, eleven years ago I didn’t see Atlanta beating Minnesota on the road, either….

:: Kurt Warner is a Hall of Famer, and I’ll have strong words with anyone who says he isn’t. I love that guy.

:: If nothing else, I’ll always love the 2009 season for giving me this scene:

:: I heard quite a bit of talk radio chatter today about Randy Moss, who is apparently in a bit of hot water in New England right now because he might not be squeezing out maximum effort. Well, no one has a right to be shocked about this at all. I recall one sports pundit writing this, shortly after the Patriots’ not-quite-undefeated season thudded to a close:

And then there’s Randy Moss, who somehow gets credit this year for being on his best behavior, which is his history as a player, when he is winning. If Moss re-signs with New England, and he’s still with them in two or three years, let’s see how happy he’s acting if the team is 10-6 and making an early exit in the playoffs. I have a strong feeling that we haven’t seen the last of the “I don’t play hard all the time” Randy Moss.

That was me, by the way. Boo-yeah!

:: This time of year brings many things to football fans. If you’re an NFC East team fan (aside from the Redskins), you’re rooting for a playoff run. If you’re a Colts fan, you’re thinking about selling your tickets to the remaining home games because they’re going to be on autopilot until the playoffs get here. And if you’re a Bills fan, you debate your fellow fans on the issue of whether it would be better for the team to lose out, and get a better draft pick, then keep trying to “fight the good fight” and pick up a meaningless win or two. I can sort of understand the sentiment, but to me, this thinking is somewhat wrong-headed.

Consider that teams like New England, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh have been good for years now, despite rarely picking in the top five of the draft, if ever. How do they do it? Those franchises have GMs and front offices that know how to evaluate talent and how to make the most of the draft choices they have. Those franchises are constantly picking guys who develop into studs, and they don’t need to be in the top five of the draft to do it. That’s what the Bills lack, and have lacked, for years.

The Bills are likely to pick somewhere around tenth this year. Maybe they’ll get as high as seventh. At that spot, they can still get a good player, or even trade down to add picks later in the draft. But they desperately need a new front office to make this work.

Put it this way: would I rather have the Bills’ current brain trust running the draft if they had the top pick in each round, or would I rather have a clone of Bill Polian running the Bills’ draft if they were only picking twentieth? Yeah, I’m gonna go with the latter. So, losing or winning right now doesn’t matter, except for the possibility that winning their way to 7-9 or even 8-8 might cause Ralph Wilson to conclude that the front office is just fine, even though these are the guys who traded up for JP Losman and John McCargo, took Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo, decided that Haloti Ngata wasn’t as big a stud as Donte Whitner, and so on. That would be disaster.

A lot of thinking, given that I haven’t even been watching football lately!

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Not even the Bills do that….

So I just hopped over to the FOX Sports website to look at the current football scores, and something struck me as a bit…improbable. Here’s a screengrab:

Somehow the Saints have posted a negative score at halftime! There’s got to be a fascinating football story behind this. So I clicked through to their coverage of the game itself, and….

Hmmmmm.

Obviously a techno-cockup. But personally, I think it would be funny if there actually was a way in football to have negative scoring!

(And now they’ve fixed it. The game is actually 17-17 in the third quarter as I write this.)

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Ahhh, screw the Gipper. What did he ever do for us, anyway?

Adam Schein of FOX Sports spends part of a regular column opining on the Buffalo Bills — specifically, just who is to blame for the fact that the team is a giant mess right now. Here’s the entirety of his take:

1. The Bills’ mess is Dick Jauron’s fault.

This is a bust.

Don’t get me wrong. The record proves that Jauron, a strong football mind, did a bad job. There were major issues with in-game strategy through the years, from the disasters against Cleveland, Dallas and New England on national television to this past Sunday in Tennessee. And Jauron didn’t surround himself with great offensive and defensive coordinators. Firing Turk Schonert right before the season was ill-timed and ill-advised. Promoting Alex Van Pelt, who had never called plays before, was even worse. Schonert should’ve been let go in the offseason and then the Bills should’ve had a new coordinator in place for the offseason workouts.

But there are other factors. The club needs to reshape the football department.

Ralph Wilson has a reputation of being impatient and, relatively speaking, cheap. That means any unemployed coach with Super Bowl rings will not even consider lovely Western New York. I saw our friend Adam Schefter reported the Bills have contacted Mike Shanahan. That would be great. But does Shanahan really want the Bills?

And Terrell Owens once again takes a major hit. I wrote on FOXSports.com that this was a ‘boom or bust’ move for the Bills, and they’d win either 6 or 10 games. It’s been a total bust. T.O., according to defensive coaches around the league, doesn’t bust it off the line of scrimmage every play. Those with and around the Bills scratch their heads as T.O. would get a day off from practice every week, often times on the crucial Friday before a game.

Sometimes, the coaching staff would actually be surprised when T.O. didn’t practice. T.O. is a club killer. And Owens’ play has fallen off. I don’t see a team taking a chance on him next year. He’s helped bring down the Bills. T.O. was jawing at assistants during the Tennessee game. Who would want him?

I find this whole bit rather odd. Schein has been a consistent defender of Jauron’s pretty much all along up until Jauron’s firing last week, insisting at various intervals that Jauron can, in fact, be a winning coach in the NFL. This point is rather dubious now, considering that Jauron’s had head-coaching stints in two different franchises in this decade that last longer than three seasons in each place and yet he managed to turn in exactly one winning season for all that. (I don’t count Jauron’s service as an interim coach with the Lions against him, because that was the Lions during the Matt Millen era. No coach in history could have won there.)

Schein’s partially correct here: the Bills’ problems go a lot farther than Dick Jauron. However, Jauron’s role in the craptacularity of the on-field product also can’t be undersold, either. Schein indicates some of Jauron’s errors, from questionable coaching staff hiring (and firing) to his on-field goofs. But Schein then says what everybody in Buffalo already knows: that the front office is just as big a problem here. The team’s talent level just isn’t good enough, and everybody knows it: draft picks that were outright busts, or picks that ignored more critical needs, or free agent signees that turned out poorly, and so on. But Jauron had his parts there, too: witness the release of Langston Walker right before this season started. That was a dumb move to make given the team’s intention of starting the least experienced offensive line in team history (and possibly in league history). The Bills’ habit in recent years of drafting handfuls of defensive backs every year, even in the face of critical holes on the roster everywhere else, is pure Jauron. But even with Jauron now gone, every Bills fan I’ve either talked to or heard on the radio call-in shows has said the same thing: if all that is changed is the head coach, then the Bills will almost certainly not improve much.

Schein’s third paragraph echoes a pretty odd sentiment that I find generally uncompelling: “Ralph Wilson is notoriously cheap, so no big-name coach would come to Buffalo.” Now, this is possible, but from the standpoint that Wilson may decline to spend the money necessary to bring a big-name coach here. But then, there is still the fact that Wilson is breaking his pattern with the Jauron firing, to some degree: he’s not trying to recoup the money he’s losing by paying Jauron to not coach here, and he’s already pledged that at season’s end there will be a large “re-evaluation” of the organization. Besides that, there’s the fact that Wilson’s recent history doesn’t so much bear out cheapness as his motivation rather than a tendency to try to do the opposite thing when the last thing doesn’t work out. That’s how you go from a fairly sedate coach like Wade Philips to a more fiery guy like Gregg Williams; and then from a defensive guy like Williams to an offensive guy like Mike Mularkey; and then from an inexperienced guy like Mularkey to an experienced and steady hand like Dick Jauron (who was selected by Marv Levy, anyway). Wilson has also in the past proven willing to spend money on players, so I don’t see that he’d be resolutely unwilling to ante up for a good coach. He has also, in the past, decided to hire what he saw as a “strong football guy” to take over just about all of the team operations, which is how Tom Donahoe arrived.

Wilson’s chief fault, in my view, is not so much cheapness as that he’s often unwilling to pull the trigger when the trigger needs to be pulled and that he’s frankly not that great a judge of whom he should hire. Now, maybe the latter doesn’t bode well for the next great rejiggering of the Bills franchise, but he’s already started pulling the trigger, so we’ll see what happens.

Color me unconvinced, also, by the various arguments I’ve seen thrown around this past week that a “big name” coach or GM wouldn’t want to come here, just by definition, because the Bills have been a mess for years. A big-name coach or GM is going to want two things: a dollar figure, and the authority to do things the way he wants. If Ralph Wilson agrees to those, then someone’s going to sign the dotted line. The Kansas City Chiefs were, after last year, a bigger mess than the Bills are now, but that didn’t stop Scott Pioli from going there. Somehow there’s always somebody willing to take on the coaching duties in Detroit, Oakland, Washington, and Cleveland.

Finally, the last two paragraphs of Schein’s entry are laughable. Look, folks, as someone who’s been paying attention, let me tell you that Terrell Owens is the last person to blame for the fact that the Bills are terrible in 2009. Now, he’s not exactly taking it on himself to make things a lot better, but he is in no way a cause of anything bad here. No, he doesn’t put a great deal of effort into things, but any locker room discord right now on the Bills is more a function of things like losing than T.O.’s complaining. If anyone thinks that the couple of passes a game that T.O. has dropped, or the routes he’s run half-heartedly when the ball had zero chance of coming his way anyway because the offensive line can’t block and the two quarterbacks can’t complete a pass to anyone other than a running back are primary reasons the Bills have been losing this year, then that person can speak up, and I’ll call them an idiot for their troubles.

Dick Jauron was an enormous factor in the Bills’ era of woe, and for Schein to pretend otherwise is just goofy — as is his bizarre T.O. rant.

UPDATE: As I write this, the Bills are playing the Jaguars. I’m not watching, but I just looked at the game stats as they are right now, with the 3rd quarter almost over, and T.O.’s line is 8 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. Yeah, that guy’s certainly been the turd in the Bills’ punchbowl this year.

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You got to know when to hold ’em….

The football world is abuzz — abuzz! — with talk about a big gamble Patriots coach (and all around Incarnation of All Things Evil) Bill Belichick made in the game yesterday against the Indianapolis Colts. With the Pats leading 34-28 with a bit more than two minutes left, the Pats faced 4th-and-2 from their own 28 yard line. Just about everybody on the planet would almost certainly punt in that situation, the idea being that you at least want the other team to have a lot more field to cover if they have to drive for a touchdown to have any chance. But Belichick decided to go for the 4th-down conversion, which came up short. The Colts took over at the Pats’ 28 yard line with just over two minutes to go and with all three of their timeouts remaining, in a game in which they had just stormed back from being down 31-14 early in the 4th quarter to being down just 34-28. Peyton Manning drove them in for the touchdown that gave the Colts a 35-34 lead with less than ten seconds to go, and the game ended with that as the final score.

Now, I agree with the general criticisms being leveled at Belichick on this. There is a growing consensus in the NFL that you shouldn’t always punt on 4th down; going for it on 4th down is a lot more frequent now. But there are situations where it still seems prudent to kick the ball away, and this definitely seems like one of them. So what was Belichick thinking?

My suspicion is that he was, first of all, utterly confident that his offense would convert the 4th down. That seems obvious. Also, I suspect that he was less than confident of his defense, which, as noted above, had just been shredded in the 4th quarter and hasn’t looked like a particularly stout defense a whole lot this year. Most of all, though, I’ll bet Belichick was thinking about the game clock. I’d guess that his reasoning was something like this:

“Well, my defense is getting killed, so if we punt, we’ll almost certainly give up the touchdown. If we go for it and convert, we can run down the clock a bit and force the Colts to use their timeouts on defense. But if we go for it and fail, the Colts will still score. So, assuming that the Colts score their touchdown if they get the ball back in this situation, which situation is worse for us? If they score after going sixty or seventy yards, they’ll probably only leave a few seconds on the clock for us, so we won’t be able to get a winning field goal. But, if they get the ball back right here on the 28, then they probably score really quickly, right? And then we get more time to get the field goal we’ll need to win.”

I think Belichick was trying to play the clock a bit, choosing the scenario that gave him the most control he would have over the time he would have left: either keep the ball, or at least give the Colts a chance to score in a lot less time than it would have taken them otherwise. Of course, the problem with that kind of thing is when the guy on the other side of the field knows all this too, and Peyton Manning may be the single most football knowledgeable quarterback in history, which is why he was able to both score his go-ahead touchdown and leave New England a paltry nine seconds in which they could do exactly nothing.

(In other news, the Bills still suck. We watched Up instead. A post on that movie is forthcoming sometime.)

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Punt, pass, uh…what’s the other thing?

A few random football notes:

:: Wow, the Saints are apparently now officially awesome. They were behind 24-3 at one point in the second quarter, pulled to being down 34-24 as they headed to the fourth — and then they blew out the Dolphins, scoring 22 points to win 46-34.

:: The quarterbacks in that game, Drew Brees and Chad Henne, were a combined 40 of 74 for 509 yards, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions. I’ll bet that was a fun game to watch.

:: Speaking of watching stuff, I finally reached my annual frustration point with the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago and decided to stop watching them and watch movies instead. So The Daughter and I spent the time we’d have otherwise had the Bills game on watching the first two Spiderman movies. So of course the Bills are 2-0 in those games.

:: Bills QB Trent Edwards, who showed promise his first two years but has regressed horribly this year, was out yesterday with a concussion. So, in the wake of the victory, I’m already seeing calls for his backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to be the new starter, especially after two wins. Fitzpatrick’s numbers? 11 of 22 for 123 yards and one touchdown. Color me unexcited. The Bills’ revolving door at quarterback the last nine years has seen a slew of guys come through who put up numbers like that. (Drew Bledsoe excepted; he actually put up some numbers in his brief time here.)

:: I still love the Spiderman movies, despite their maddening habit of killing off the villains each time out (with one exception) so they can never appear again (in the comics, you never know when Spidey’s gonna have to face Doc Ock again), the complete bungling of the Gwen Stacy character (if she’s not gonna be Peter Parker’s first love and if she’s not gonna die, she just shouldn’t be there at all), and the less-than-enthralling music by Danny Elfman and Christopher Young.

:: I still think that the Vikings are unlikely to get anything other than a playoff berth out of Brett Favre’s presence. The schedule has been completely in their favor the first six games: they’ve been home for each of their three games against good teams, and their first three road games were each against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

:: I know that pass rushers take a while to develop, yada yada yada, but really, color me unimpressed with Bills first-round pick Aaron Maybin. It seems to me that a defensive player taken 11th overall in the entire draft should, after seven games, have more than four tackles. And we’re not even talking about his lack of any sacks, even though he was billed as a top pass-rushing prospect.

:: What’s wrong with Peyton Manning? His yardage was down considerably in Sunday’s game against the Rams, as he failed to break 300 yards for the first time this year. Sure, his numbers (23 of 34, 235 yards, 3 TDs, O INTs) may look good in the afterglow of a 42-6 win, but they may have an issue there.

:: That last was facetious.

That’s all. Next week, the Bills host Houston. I’ll be watching Spiderman 3.

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Sucking is a state of mind

The Bills have just finished losing to the Dolphins by a score of…well geez, I don’t know, but it was a lot. It is now official: the Bills are terrible. Sure, they have a roster with some talent on it, but it doesn’t matter; their coaching and front office are simply unable to put together a winning product. Oh well. Looks like I’ll get my Sunday afternoons back pretty soon — probably next week, after the Bills allow the Browns to get Win Number One on the season.

I note also that the Dolphins now play in “Land Shark Stadium”, and I endorse this name. In fact, I think that the world needs more sports venues named for Saturday Night Live sketches. I’d love to see the World Series alternate between Church Lady Park and Blues Brothers Stadium, the Stanley Cup be hoisted by the home team at Weekend Update Arena, and the Super Bowl kick off on the turf at Mr. Short Term Memory Field.

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The tarnished edifice

I always like reading sportswriters when they take a negative view on the New England Patriots, so here’s Mark Kriegel:

For a while now there has been this feeling, accepted with little question, that the Patriots would pick up where they left off in 2007 just as soon as Tom Brady came back from his knee injury.

That’s not going to happen. Bill Belichick — as evidenced by his hilariously rude inability to acknowledge rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez after the game — will only get meaner. And barring cataclysmic injuries, his Patriots will get better. But they’ll never be what they were. Maybe now you know why Belichick ran off the field with a second still on the clock against the Giants in Arizona. I’d say he already understood what’s taken everybody else so long to comprehend, that the 2007 Patriots would go down as the best team never to win a Super Bowl.

I actually — believe it or not — think that the Patriots probably have one more run in them, but I think that run is either this year or never, for many of the same reasons Kriegel describes here: Belichick’s team is aging, and I also reiterate my view that Tom Brady is closer to physical decline than most people want to believe. After this year, I think the most likely scenario facing the Patriots is a few years — two or three — of going 10-6 or 11-5, making a few playoff appearances, and most likely exiting by the second round. I think their future looks more like, say, the Buffalo Bills of the mid-1990s, when they were still good but clearly past the point of being the best team in the AFC. Right now the Patriot defense is pretty suspect, and their offensive line isn’t playing nearly as well as it did in years past (and I always found their line overrated anyway).

I’m not willing to pronounce them dead, but I do think that the “Tom’s back, so pencil in the Patriots for February!” talk is, shall we say, misplaced. Their window is closing more quickly than they think.

(Ditto the Colts, by the way.)

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